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538 had a good article about Walker's chances. Will update with what they said. Their point was that special elections typically favor republicans and that 2021 runoffs were the exception, not the rule.

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All I remember hearing in 2021 about the Georgia runoff was Stacie Adams exclaiming her effort to get 1.5 million mail in ballots in the runoff. So that will be the exception going forward unless those voting laws changed?

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