Media Blitzes and Desperation

"They’re not moving the needle.”

It’s less than one month from the 2024 presidential election and it feels like there has been a shift.

The Kamala Harris campaign must be nervous. Democratic polling suggests Trump has made gains – and even leads – key swing states. An internal poll from Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign, for example, shows Trump up by 3% in Wisconsin. It’s getting to the point that Michigan Democrats have begged Kamala to do more events in that state, as she lags with union support and polls poorly with men. Her struggles in Michigan are not unique to that state – she faces the same problems in every other close race she needs to win, particularly Pennsylvania and Nevada.

The sign of Democratic concern has always been whether Kamala and Tim Walz will do interviews. It’s risk reward: Kamala interviews poorly, and people seem to like her less the more they get to know her, but in such a close race where Kamala can’t seem to gain momentum, what are the other options?

Their hand has been forced. The Democrats’ internal polls might not be totally public, save for the occasional leak, but her own people know “they’re not moving the needle.”

And that gets us to where we are. Walz made a poor appearance on Fox this weekend, they’re hitting the late night circuit, and both were subjected to a relatively robust 60 Minutes interview, where Kamala struggled to explain her changes in policy and the disaster at the US-Mexican border.

Not that it takes tough questions to stump the Democratic nominee. On today’s appearance on The View, Kamala was unable to differentiate herself from President Biden – an issue she must carefully navigate, given the public’s displeasure with Biden’s handling of the economy. CNN is disappointed.

The clips keep coming, and that’s the downside of putting Kamala out there. The Democrats might have started the week optimistic of persuading voters, but they might end the week flooded with the latest gaffes from their candidate.  

The latest national polling from The New York Times/Sienna shows Kamala with a 3% lead over Trump (49% to 46%). This can’t inspire confidence with the Democrats – Kamala is actually pacing behind Biden’s 2020 share of the popular vote, which he won by 4.3% (results below polling, by the way).

But in reality, in our system, national polls matter less than state-specific polls, particularly for swing states. Here are the current weighted averages which remain close. Allegedly.

Kamala might have been crowned the winner at the only presidential debate, but that “victory” might have been empty. She did little to persuade undecideds, and post-debate polls she might have lost on the issue of the economy. Hispanic voters “appear to have moved away from Ms. Harris.”

And independents actually view Kamala’s policies as hurting people like them (42% believing they hurt; 30% believing they help) while Trump maintains an edge on this question, with 43% of independents believing Trump’s policies helped and 30% believing his policies hurt.

According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Trump gains on 2020 Biden voters: “In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris.” Loyalty to Trump remains strong and a Biden voter isn’t necessarily a Harris voter: “a higher percentage of Trump 2020 voters say they will vote for Donald Trump in November than Biden 2020 voters say they will vote for Harris in every state polled.” This is especially true of men of all races.

If Trump is securing some of the Biden vote and grabbing both independents and at least a decent part of the Hispanic vote (and there is nothing to suggest that he isn’t), and if voters continue to believe that Trump is best on the economy and immigration and inflation, that leads to an essential question – is the race in the swing states as tight as the pollsters maintain?

If the polls miss as big as they did in 2020, then Kamala is substantially underperforming and this is Trump’s election to lose. Thus the Kamala media blitz. The optimism voiced privately reveals as much - Republicans are much more confident than Democrats. On that point we leave you with some thoughts from Mark Halperin: