Election 2024: The Day Before

Reasons for Optimism

We’re just a day away from the 2024 Presidential election and if you’re feeling a little on edge, let us offer a little consolation: the Democrats are wrecked with worry.

We have documented the polling trends for the last couple of months. The movement from September 10, 2024 to the present day, November 1, has Republicans feeling confident. Victory isn’t guaranteed, but it’s safe to say that leadership is cautiously optimistic.

Back in September, based on the aggregate polls, Kamala enjoyed slim leads in the majority of swing states – Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – and was essentially tied with Trump in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.

September 2024 Aggregates:

But things have changed. Momentum shifted. In a race with a number of close states, the last ~60 days have been very good for Donald Trump. Per the New York Times aggregates, Trump has secured slim leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. He has gained 3 points in Arizona. Kamala’s lead in Wisconsin has shrunk and she is now fighting to not lose Michigan.

November 2024 Aggregates:

Nate Silver was kind enough to post this chart showing shifts for the last week and month. While there are some changes from last week benefiting Democrats, they have been insufficient to cut into Republican gains this past month. If polling can be believed.

Contrary to much of the polling relied upon by The New York Times, AtlasIntel, which had some of the most accurate polls of the 2020 election, has Trump ahead in every swing state. (Their November 1-2 poll is available here.)

Theoretically, Trump could have a clean sweep of all the swing states. But don’t get too confident just yet – the race for independents is tight. According to the latest Atlas polls, Trump is winning independents in Arizona (45.4 to 44.9); Nevada (51 to 41.6); and North Carolina (49.4 to 44.7). He’s lagging behind Kamala in the independent vote in Georgia (38.2 to 50); Michigan (45.7 to 47.9); Pennsylvania (41.9 to 45.6); and Wisconsin (45.6 to 47.9). Georgia seems like the outlier – but even with that large margin, Atlas has Kamala behind Trump in Georgia by 2.5%.

For what it’s worth, here’s Karoline Leavitt (Trump’s Press Secretary) discussing their internal polling: “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every single key battleground state.”

You expect a campaign to say that - but that doesn’t mean she’s wrong. In fact, early voting results indicate motivated Republicans and suggest potential problems with Democrat turnout. There’s an enthusiasm gap.

Early Results - Nevada

In Nevada, as of yesterday, Republicans have a lead of approximately 43,000 votes – equaling 4 percent – over Democrats (not counting independents, which may skew Trump). Jon Ralston - who abhors Trump - at The Nevada Independent observed that Republicans “have a substantial turnout advantage of a whopping 8 percent statewide (57-49) and approaching 10 percent (57-47) in Clark County [Las Vegas]”.

Nevada is trending in the right direction for Trump and other Republicans – it seems Nevada Republicans and rural counties are highly motivated this year – but it’s too early to celebrate, as Clark County continues to cut into the Republican lead and the Nevada Democrat machine is strong. Ralston believes Harris edges Trump by 0.3 percent based on a “feeling”, but concedes the election is “really a coin flip” and that “It’s going to be very, very close.” The winner may not be clear on election night. We’ll see.

Early Results – Pennsylvania

In 2020, Pennsylvania Democrats had a firewall of nearly 1.1 million early votes.

The latest numbers show a dramatic decrease. The Democrat early voting lead is approximately 400,000. That’s 700,000 less than the 2020 lead, the result of 700,000 fewer Democrat mail-in voters. (Republicans stayed fairly even.) Again, indications of a Democrat enthusiasm problem.

Spelling more trouble for Democrats in Pennsylvania is the fact that “there are now more registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania than ever before.” Democrats still hold the registration lead with 286,291 more registered Democrats than Republicans, but this is a dramatic decrease from 2020, where the Democrat margin was 685,818.

Early Results - Arizona

Republicans currently lead the Arizona mail-in ballots by 182,681 votes.

By comparison, in 2020, Democrats had a slight lead of nearly 10,000 votes. As of November 1, 2024, there have been approximately 200,000 fewer Democrats voting by mail.

More Numbers and More Democrat Issues

The Trump campaign has gone into more detail on lagging Democrat turnout - something Democrats have voiced concern about - particularly in the swing states. Here are the numbers:

Arizona:

• Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Georgia:

• Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Michigan:

• Urban turnout is down -321,523 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020.

North Carolina:

• Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Nevada:

• Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Pennsylvania:

• Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Wisconsin:

• Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020.

• Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020.

Will we see an urban/female turnaround, and has the GOP vote been frontloaded? It’s possible, but it may not be likely. We’ll find out soon enough.

But if it’s any indication, the Democrats are admitting that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” And that’s probably an understatement.