Candidate Kamala

Can the Democrats sell Kamala Harris?

Vice President Kamala Harris, according to an AP survey, “now appears to have the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates she’ll need to claim the nomination.” With support from the President Biden, the Clintons, and now Nancy Pelosi and other Congressional leaders – as well as potential challengers like Gavin Newsome – it appears that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee.

What’s the current status of the polling, and what opportunities do Donald Trump and the GOP have to attack, damage, and redefine Kamala?

Let’s dig in.

Kamala hovers at around 38% favorable and 52% unfavorable, not far from Joe Biden. Her numbers are similar with respect to job approval. Donald Trump polls a bit better than both.  

Source: 538

Polling averages from The New York Times show that Kamala trails Trump “by two percentage points nationally, 46 percent to 48 percent.”’

According to ABC News and 538, Kamala “lags behind Biden’s margin against Trump in the key battleground states”:

“In our aggregate of this limited set of polls, Harris trailed Trump by around 3 points in Wisconsin (Biden trailed by about 2 points), by almost 5 in Pennsylvania (Biden was down around 4) and by 5 in Michigan (Biden was behind by about 2). This raises the possibility that she could have a harder time than Biden winning the Electoral College and thus the election.”

Kamala Harris also struggles with the Hispanic vote when compared to the Biden-Harris 2020 campaign. The Miami Herald reports that one survey taken this month showed “Harris scoring just 42% support among Hispanics nationally, roughly on par with former President Donald Trump, who notched 41%.” A Quinnipiac University poll released this week had “Harris and Trump tied among Hispanic voters at 39% each in a multi-candidate field.” At this time, it’s reasonable to assume that Kamala will lose the Hispanic male vote to Trump.

While the general polling consensus at this early time is that Kamala is behind, other polls show Kamala with a slight lead.

A July 23 Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris with 44% support to Trump’s 42% among registered voters though, it’s worthwhile to look at who they polled: 426 Democrats, 376 Republicans, and 341 Independents. Behind closed doors, Democrats can’t be optimistic that Kamala leads by only 2% in a poll that over-represented Democrats by over 13%.

Among younger voters, a Quinnipiac University poll between July 19 and July 21 “found that among the 18-34 age group, Trump fared better than Harris, with 58 percent of those surveyed supporting the former president compared to Harris’ 39 percent.”

Young Democrats aren’t exactly motivated to vote for Kamala, . According to CNN’s Harry Enten, Kamala is “doing much worse against Trump than Biden did in 2020.”

All this comes with a disclaimer: it’s still early.

Kamala will see a bounce in the coming days or weeks as Democrats rally to support their candidate and as the media fawns over the Democrats’ presumptive nominee. Politico already calls her the “Gen Z Meme Queen” and a number of other outlets, including The New York Times, have run similar coverage. It helps to have the TikTok and YouTube algorithms on your side. As Team Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, observed:

the media’s “coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term.”

At least in the short term. Up until November, the Trump campaign has the opportunity to remind the public of who Kamala Harris truly is.

In her own words, she wants to open the borders, decriminalize illegal border crossings, eradicate private health insurance, and shut down drilling and fracking. Here’s just a preview of the devastating ads the Democrats will be facing in the coming months:

What of her inability to connect with voters? Say what you will about Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, at least they had some charisma. (Bill had much more than Barack, of course). People genuinely liked them, people thought these men understood them. It’s just not the same with Kamala (just look to the 2020 Democratic primary) - there is no connection or empathy, and her untimely laughs are the result of some type of nervous energy, inauthentic and forced.

Obama sees the problems; the New York Post reports that sources close to the Biden family say “Obama’s very upset because he knows she can’t win.” The source continues:

“Obama knows she’s just incompetent — the border czar who never visited the border, saying that all migrants should have health insurance. She cannot navigate the landmines that are ahead of her.”

Maybe those are Obama’s true feelings. It seems aligned with his thinking. Or maybe, just maybe, that leak is part of a pressure campaign from Biden and Harris, et al., to secure Obama’s endorsement.

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One avenue of attack, if reporting is to be believed, will be Kamala’s record as San Francisco’s District Attorney and California’s Attorney General. Tim Alberta at The Atlantic reports: “Trump allies told me they plan to assault her left flank with accusations of Harris over-incarcerating young men of color when she was California’s attorney general.”

Whether that is entirely truthful is difficult to assess. Alberta isn’t always accurate and that same article misrepresents Kamala’s record as prosecutor, stating: “She is also a former prosecutor who, if anything, is known for being too tough on crime.”

But that’s not right. It’s not that Kamala was too tough on crime – there were times where she was too soft on criminals, like when she decided against seeking the death penalty for a gang member who killed a police office.

It’s also that Kamala was a dirty prosecutor – a dirty cop – who abused her power, first as San Francisco’s District Attorney then as California’s Attorney General, to hide or defend serious police and prosecutorial and state misconduct. Her greatest hits, many of which are summarized by Reason, include:

• The violation of criminal defendants’ constitutional rights “by hiding damaging information about a police drug lab technician”;

• Keeping inmates locked up for cheap labor;

• Defending a prosecutor who falsified interview transcripts; and

• Defending an unconstitutional jail informant program.

We haven’t even addressed Kamala’s few jobs as Vice President. Early in the Biden presidency, Kamala was appointed as “border czar” to focus on “curbing the current flow of migrants and implementing a long-term strategy that addresses the root cause of migration”, particularly in Central America.

The Biden White House and Democrats have always pushed back on that title, and the press is now playing down her role on immigration and backtracking on what they previously called her. This video from NewsBusters/Media Research Center shows just how quick the media is starting to mop-up for Kamala:

The argument over Kamala’s official title misses the more important issue – that she was was tasked with fixing the immigration problem and she spectacularly failed.

In fact, illegal immigration has dramatically increased since Biden and Kamala took office, with over 6 million illegal alien encounters at the border and over 3 million illegal aliens released into the country. Illegal immigration from Central America - the region Kamala was specifically assigned - has surged.

Kamala’s defense of her job performance has never been good, even with a friendly media. (One of the keys to defeating Kamala seems to be getting her to talk.) Case in point – a June 2021 interview with Lester Holt where Kamala is corrected about not making a visit to the border:

Reflecting these realities, one July 22 poll showed Trump is viewed as handling the key issue of immigration better than Kamala by a 15-point margin.

Even her first year as Vice President, one which should have been fairly smooth and acted as somewhat of a victory lap, was dismal. In January 2022, the BBC asked “Kamala Harris one year: Where did it go wrong for her?”

Part of the problem is her character. Per Washington Post reporting, she has had problems keeping staff (some complained she was a bully), and one of her former staffers said: “It’s clear that you’re not working with somebody who is willing to do the prep and the work.”

What does Kamala have to offer?

She can appeal to the Biden economy – to her peril. Voter are displeased with Biden’s handling of the economy; many voters feel they were “better off financially four years ago than they were today.” Statistics back them up:

Kamala faces the difficult task of taking credit for the COVID recovery while distancing herself from the worst aspects of the Biden economy: continuing inflation and high interest rates, the potential for an economic slowdown, adding trillions to the national debt, and general public disapproval.

There is also a substantial risk of a recession before the election, something which might end the Democrats’ hopes for retaining the presidency. The Biden Administration (and the Federal Reserve) are doing everything in their power to prevent that from happening - they’ll pull every trick until the election - but the probability of a recession within the next 12 months is the highest since the early 1980s. From the Federal Reserve:

Kamala faces similar issues on foreign policy. For every perceived Biden success (not many) there are a host of failures or events the administration has been powerless to stop – from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas.  Kamala promising to end the Russia/Ukraine war - is that actually believable?

Does she project the strength to take on China? To negotiate trade deals or handle terrorism? The same woman who mistakenly touted America’s “alliance with the Republic of North Korea”?

With respect to Israel, Kamala will attempt to appeal to both progressives and moderates by supporting Israel’s right to self-defense while condemning Israel for what she perceives as the overzealous prosecution of that right. Playing both sides won’t satisfy many supporters of Israel or Michigan voters or the far-left - as evidenced by the riot when Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress yesterday, an event Kamala purposefully missed.

Not to say that Kamala doesn’t have a base - she certainly does. She can’t be underestimated. Millions of Americans vote Democrat down the line, and Kamala checks all the traditional liberal boxes: a strong proponent of abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, an advocate for a more liberal Supreme Court, an appeal to liberal values. She is the alternative to Trump and everything the Democrats say Trump stands for, the supposed bulwark against America’s slide into totalitarianism or whatever.

But despite the early bump and the attempt to make Kamala happen, she faces real problems in the coming months - if the Republicans can properly define her to the American people.